Specific Climate Impacts.
Based on the IPCC 2013 Report’s Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for policymakers, the map on page 7 suggests there will be mild effects in the Carribean region. These are indicated as impacts on "rivers, lakes, and/or floods." This could mean dry season droughts and rainy season flooding, especially in view of Haiti's well known deforestation. I am truly surprised that this looks like one of the least impacted regions on this map, at least judging by the single icon displayed.
There is, however, indication that increasing sea temperatures will effect marine ecosystems severely. Bony fishes will increase 50 km/decade while non boney fishes will decrease about 15 km/decade, with corresponding economic effects and human consequences. Rising sea levels could impact coastal towns and cities in terms of infrastructure and economics, but according to this map below (source) this effect would not be widespread in Haiti.
The majority of flooding in Haiti has resulted from hurricane storm surges, which could be amplified by sea level rise.
There is, however, no suggestion on the IPPC map of increased risk or damage from hurricanes. Later in the report there is a scant amount of information dealing with "Small Islands" and the expected loss of coastal area, reduction in livelihoods, due to rising sea levels, and degradation of ocean habitat and coral reef bleaching due to ocean acidification. For South America there is projected food and water shortage as well as increase in vectorborne diseases. Malaria and dengue have long been endemic in Haiti, as has food stress for the majority. These risks and impacts are of human, biological, physical, and economic dimension. This will all be compounded by inadequate management efforts that can be expected due to the country's poor infrastructure, economy and politics. As usual, the rich will be fine and adapt but the poor will have limited options and suffer.
Regional Climate projections:
The 2013 ippc report suggests there will be some drying of the summer climate in the Carribean with a decrease in tropical cyclones. There may be a mid 21st century warming of 2 to 3 degrees centigrade, it says. This report then discusses some generalities about Carribean climate, e.g. the relationship to drier conditions related to the ENSO phenomenon of El Nino and wetter conditions wiht La Nina. The Carribean low level jet was also mentioned and the importance of the ITCZ, but the significance of these factors was not specified, I assume due to predictive complexity and uncertainty.
Detailed Look at Future Climate
The report on small islands projects a sea level rise by 2100 of 0.35 to 0.70 meters, together with change in swells, storm surges, and coastal erosion and flooding.
Ocean temperature increase and acidification will impact reefs and fisheries. Increased dust pollution from the Sahara may be a problem. There may be unexpected invasive species and aquatic pathogens alterations.
Adaptation and mitigation will have to take place on many fronts, i.e. economic, environmental, and in terms of cultural
and educational changes. There may be needed changes in energy systems, tourism, control of water pollution and atmospheric emissions, and wetlands management.
This report recommends that outside agencies operate by trying to empower local communities and optimizing local practices.
Most Interesting Threat
Since I have volunteered as an ophthalmologist in Haiti I am most interested in the human health impacts of climate change there. Some existing health hazards will be exaggerated, e.g. the risk of being injured or drowning in a flood. Leptospirosis, a waterborne disease endemic in Haiti, has been shown in a study in Guadalupe to increase in the more wet conditions of El Niño to incidence of 13/100,000 versus 4.5/100,000 in El Niña years. Malaria and dengue fever have been demonstrated to be related in incidence to climate change. The relation of climate change to the density and development of the anopheles mosquito, the vector of both diseases, has been well shown. It is projected that cholera may increase as well, as the hygiene of water supplies is degraded in response to floods. An interesting risk is the increased incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning, related to the greater prevalence of the causative dinoflaggelat in a warmer ocean, as shown by a study of sea surface temperatures in the Lesser Antilles.
Based on the IPCC 2013 Report’s Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for policymakers, the map on page 7 suggests there will be mild effects in the Carribean region. These are indicated as impacts on "rivers, lakes, and/or floods." This could mean dry season droughts and rainy season flooding, especially in view of Haiti's well known deforestation. I am truly surprised that this looks like one of the least impacted regions on this map, at least judging by the single icon displayed.
There is, however, indication that increasing sea temperatures will effect marine ecosystems severely. Bony fishes will increase 50 km/decade while non boney fishes will decrease about 15 km/decade, with corresponding economic effects and human consequences. Rising sea levels could impact coastal towns and cities in terms of infrastructure and economics, but according to this map below (source) this effect would not be widespread in Haiti.
 |
| Effect of sea level change in Caribbean. Areas in red flooded. |
The majority of flooding in Haiti has resulted from hurricane storm surges, which could be amplified by sea level rise.
There is, however, no suggestion on the IPPC map of increased risk or damage from hurricanes. Later in the report there is a scant amount of information dealing with "Small Islands" and the expected loss of coastal area, reduction in livelihoods, due to rising sea levels, and degradation of ocean habitat and coral reef bleaching due to ocean acidification. For South America there is projected food and water shortage as well as increase in vectorborne diseases. Malaria and dengue have long been endemic in Haiti, as has food stress for the majority. These risks and impacts are of human, biological, physical, and economic dimension. This will all be compounded by inadequate management efforts that can be expected due to the country's poor infrastructure, economy and politics. As usual, the rich will be fine and adapt but the poor will have limited options and suffer.
Regional Climate projections:
The 2013 ippc report suggests there will be some drying of the summer climate in the Carribean with a decrease in tropical cyclones. There may be a mid 21st century warming of 2 to 3 degrees centigrade, it says. This report then discusses some generalities about Carribean climate, e.g. the relationship to drier conditions related to the ENSO phenomenon of El Nino and wetter conditions wiht La Nina. The Carribean low level jet was also mentioned and the importance of the ITCZ, but the significance of these factors was not specified, I assume due to predictive complexity and uncertainty.
Detailed Look at Future Climate
The report on small islands projects a sea level rise by 2100 of 0.35 to 0.70 meters, together with change in swells, storm surges, and coastal erosion and flooding.
Ocean temperature increase and acidification will impact reefs and fisheries. Increased dust pollution from the Sahara may be a problem. There may be unexpected invasive species and aquatic pathogens alterations.
Adaptation and mitigation will have to take place on many fronts, i.e. economic, environmental, and in terms of cultural
and educational changes. There may be needed changes in energy systems, tourism, control of water pollution and atmospheric emissions, and wetlands management.
This report recommends that outside agencies operate by trying to empower local communities and optimizing local practices.
 |
| Recent flooding in Haiti |
Most Interesting Threat
Since I have volunteered as an ophthalmologist in Haiti I am most interested in the human health impacts of climate change there. Some existing health hazards will be exaggerated, e.g. the risk of being injured or drowning in a flood. Leptospirosis, a waterborne disease endemic in Haiti, has been shown in a study in Guadalupe to increase in the more wet conditions of El Niño to incidence of 13/100,000 versus 4.5/100,000 in El Niña years. Malaria and dengue fever have been demonstrated to be related in incidence to climate change. The relation of climate change to the density and development of the anopheles mosquito, the vector of both diseases, has been well shown. It is projected that cholera may increase as well, as the hygiene of water supplies is degraded in response to floods. An interesting risk is the increased incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning, related to the greater prevalence of the causative dinoflaggelat in a warmer ocean, as shown by a study of sea surface temperatures in the Lesser Antilles.
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